The Incerto is an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision making when we don t understand the world, expressed in the form of a personal essay with autobiographical sections, stories, parables, and philosophical, historical, and scientific discussions, in non-overlapping volumes that can be accessed in any order. The main thread is that while there is inordinate uncertainty about what is going on, there is great certainty as to what one should do about it.

This boxed set includes:
FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS
THE BLACK SWAN
THE BED OF PROCRUSTES
ANTIFRAGILE
SKIN IN THE GAME